I have a default, Ukraine’s check is economical and political crisis, growth is unemployed and the rate is 50-90 UAH / USD.

The whole Internet is full of discussions about the appointment of the newly elected president, the dissolution of parliament and presidential decrees. All this is more reminiscent of an ancient proverb: what is permitted to Jupiter is not allowed to bulls.

At the same time, no one paid much attention to how the NBU and the Ukrainian government paid off $ 1 billion worth of Eurobonds, and in April 2019, they paid off $ 881 million of foreign debts.

At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate did not devalue and continued to confidently demonstrate the annual seasonal revaluation, which the NBU smoothly conducts.

Common sense: is it or not?
It is surprising to see how a number of advisers, political observers and analysts offer President V. Zelensky, on a number of issues, to spit on a plate with which we drink water.

The main newsmaker, a freelance political strategist and consultant to the political-economic block of the “wind of changes” at the weekend surprised everyone with his proposal to default Ukraine.

The window of opportunity, when it was rational to do in the first half of 2014, closed. Now this is fraught with a repetition of the history of Venezuela-2.

The benefit from this will be only to large capital, which has savings in foreign currency and not in Ukraine.

How can, for example, voice even in the short term the need to stop or freeze cooperation with the IMF in the face of large payments on external obligations falling at the end of 2019, when cooperation with the IMF is a signal for the World Bank and the European Union.

After legitimizing the purification of the banking system by international partners, how to set a precedent and begin to seriously talk about multi-billion dollar compensation to former owners, when millions of people were left without their savings.

At the current level of political populism, which is not ready for structural reforms without coercion, how to abandon reform in medicine, etc.?

We see a repeat of the personnel policy, which we promised not to return to: friends, businessmen, people tied to the oligarchy.

How to assess the loss of Ukraine’s image in the international arena and the trust of foreign investors who have already negatively assessed the latest appointments.

Pessimistic scenario
If we allow the political crisis after the parliamentary elections, the absence of the government until late autumn, then the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of the year can only be supported by reserves.

Payments on external liabilities will come from the issue, and with all this, one should not forget that the entire budget deficit is formed at the end of the year, and this is another wave of emission and domestic borrowing.

With such a property policy, one should forget about privatization and the dream of a lifebuoy of UAH 17 billion to the budget long ago and put an end to it.

Tips in the style of “we have enough gold and foreign exchange reserves to do without the IMF in 2019” cause laughter.

Since payments for the payment of external obligations are part of public finances, payments on them may occur exclusively from the accounts of the government.

NBU gold and currency reserves are intended only for the exchange of hryvnia to foreign currency.

It is possible to pay the 3 billion dollars necessary in December 2019 without the IMF program through hidden emissions and leaching of foreign exchange reserves.

Do not forget that at the end of the year there will be an increase in seasonal business activity and an increase in demand for foreign currency.

In addition, non-residents will begin to leave the hryvnia government bonds and this will double the pressure on the exchange rate, only in January-April 2019 non-residents increased their portfolio of hryvnia government bonds by 1.1 billion dollars.

Knowing the NBU’s public position on the issue of the market exchange rate mechanism, devaluation without the IMF and without default will be significant, currency liberalization can be forgotten, and the inflation rate will clearly grow into a two-digit number.

The budget will not be approved on time and all efforts to implement a three-year spending review in the absence of a stable forecast of macroeconomic indicators will be in vain.

And if we allow default, then the rate of 50-90 UAH is a reality. In short, another economic and political crisis with the loss of economic growth, rising unemployment and all the ensuing consequences.

How to save the economy
The highest task of the “wind of change” today is to ensure the budget, debt, financial and macroeconomic stability of the Ukrainian economy. NBU independence.

The transparency of regulatory activities, a representative personal example of the rule of law, the appointment of professionals, decent and patriotic people, all the more so because of the 65 million Ukrainians, there is anyone to choose from.